Al-Fatehvs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
COMPLETEDSaudi-Arabia · Pro League · 10/9/2026, 2:55:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Ahli Jeddah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Original prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.72 | 16.0% | 18.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 19.2% | 20.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 64.8% | 61.2% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Al-Ahli Jeddah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40