Al-Faisaly FCvs
Al-Nassr
COMPLETEDSaudi-Arabia · Pro League · 10/23/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Nassr
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.13 | 9.1% | 15.1% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.37 | 14.5% | 19.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 76.4% | 65.7% | -10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
65.7%
Model confidence
65.7%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20