Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Arabi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Arabi 0-2 Al Urooba
Original prediction
Al Arabi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.2% | 40.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.1% | 27.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 33.8% | 31.9% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Arabi
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Al Arabi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ArabiWWWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Al UroobaWWLDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al ArabiAl Urooba
83.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
86.5Power83.3
1.54xG1.19