Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Arabi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Arabi 1-1 Al Urooba
Original prediction
Al Arabi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 32.8% | 43.2% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.7% | 26.3% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 38.4% | 30.5% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Arabi
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Al Arabi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ArabiWWWLW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Al UroobaWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Al ArabiAl Urooba
100.0Attack44.4
55.6Defence77.8
100.0Form55.6
87.0Power60.9
1.86xG1.20