Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Arabi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Arabi 2-0 Al Thaid
Original prediction
Al Arabi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.3% | 46.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.5% | 26.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.2% | 27.0% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Al Arabi
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Al Arabi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ArabiWWDWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al ThaidWWWWD
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Al ArabiAl Thaid
50.0Attack50.0
75.0Defence33.3
58.3Form50.0
61.6Power45.8
1.70xG1.01