Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nejmeh · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Arabi 1-3 Al Nejmeh
Original prediction
Al Nejmeh
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.4% | 34.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.8% | 28.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 33.8% | 37.5% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Nejmeh
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Al Nejmeh has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ArabiLLDDL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al NejmehLWDWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al ArabiAl Nejmeh
0.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence66.7
0.0Form50.0
21.5Power53.0
1.20xG1.38