Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ansar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ansar 2-1 Al Hikma
Original prediction
Al Ansar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 71.5% | 46.5% | -25.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 18.7% | 26.3% | 7.5 pts |
| Away | 9.20 | 9.7% | 27.2% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Ansar
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Al Ansar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AnsarLWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.75/1.75
BTTS 2/4O2.5 4/4
Al HikmaNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Al AnsarAl Hikma
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24