Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ain 4-0 Al-Nassr
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.23 | 21.8% | 35.3% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.7% | 20.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 55.5% | 44.7% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AinDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-NassrDWLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al AinAl-Nassr
81.0Attack72.7
50.0Defence60.6
66.7Form78.8
66.0Power72.9
2.01xG2.05