Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ain 2-1 Al Nasr
Original prediction
Al Ain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.4% | 51.7% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.8% | 23.8% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 6.58 | 13.8% | 24.5% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Ain
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Al Ain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AinWWWDW
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NasrWDLWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al AinAl Nasr
100.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
91.7Power64.8
2.02xG1.29