Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ain 2-3 Ajman
Original prediction
Al Ain
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 68.1% | 41.7% | -26.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.1% | 24.2% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 7.02 | 12.8% | 34.1% | 21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Al Ain
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Al Ain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AinLWDWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AjmanWLWLW
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Al AinAjman
66.7Attack100.0
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power80.3
1.71xG2.10