Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC
Original prediction
Al Ahly
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.8% | 51.2% | -17.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.2% | 27.1% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 9.14 | 10.0% | 21.7% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Projected Score
Al Ahly 1–0 Smouha SC
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AhlyWWLWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Smouha SCDLLLL
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al AhlySmouha SC
83.3Attack0.0
66.7Defence83.3
100.0Form16.7
86.5Power36.5
1.36xG0.74