Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ahly 4-0 Kitara
Original prediction
Al Ahly
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 87.6% | 50.9% | -36.7 pts |
| Draw | 9.81 | 9.4% | 24.3% | 14.9 pts |
| Away | 30.33 | 3.0% | 24.9% | 21.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AhlyDWWWW
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KitaraLWWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al AhlyKitara
66.7Attack55.6
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
80.3Power64.7
1.28xG1.05