Al Ahlyvs
Abu Qair Semad
COMPLETEDEgypt · Premier League · 9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahly · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Ahly 1-0 Abu Qair Semad, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ahly 2-0 Abu Qair Semad
Original prediction
Al Ahly
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.4% | 60.2% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.35 | 17.1% | 23.5% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 12.10 | 7.5% | 16.3% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Projected Score
Al Ahly 1–0 Abu Qair Semad
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahly
Probability
60.2%
Model confidence
60.2%
Al Ahly has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al AhlyDWWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Abu Qair SemadLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al AhlyAbu Qair Semad
58.3Attack8.3
75.0Defence50.0
83.3Form25.0
75.3Power32.0
1.62xG0.60