Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahli · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Al Ahli are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Foutoua are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Al Ahli hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (40.2 v 25.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the AFC Challenge League, while Al Ahli holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al Ahli
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Al Ahli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00