Al-Ahli Jeddahvs
Al-Gharafa
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Elite · 10/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Ahli Jeddah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al-Gharafa
Original prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.9% | 56.3% | -17.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.92 | 15.6% | 22.6% | 7.0 pts |
| Away | 8.75 | 10.5% | 21.1% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Al-Ahli Jeddah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80