Al Ahli Dohavs
Lusail City
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 8/28/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahli Doha · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ahli Doha 3-3 Lusail City
Original prediction
Al Ahli Doha
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 57.1% | 42.2% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.4% | 25.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.44 | 20.5% | 32.0% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahli Doha
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Al Ahli Doha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60