Premier LeaguePremier League
Wednesday, 24 June 2026Last updated 10:01
Al Ahed

Al Ahed

Home
L
41
Full time
Safa

Safa

Away
L
Beirut Municipal Stadium
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Safa(32%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction missed— Result: Al Ahed
Win probability
Al Ahed
46%
Draw
22%
Safa
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Al Ahed
9
Safa
34
Defence
Al Ahed
27
Safa
1
Momentum
Al Ahed
0
Safa
0
Danger (xG)
Al Ahed
0.00
Safa
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Al Ahed)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Safa)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Al Ahed)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Safa)
3.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Al AhedAl Ahed
LW
SafaSafa
LL

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Al Ahed46%
Draw22%
Safa32%

Al Ahed leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Al Ahed head into this in Premier League fixture at Beirut Municipal Stadium in mixed form (L), while Safa arrive in mixed form (L). Al Ahed have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Safa over 1 games.

The model rates Al Ahed's attack at 9/100 against a 1/100 Safa defence, and Safa's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Al Ahed backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Al Ahed have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home. Safa have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per away game.

Al Ahed have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 5.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Safa to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Al Ahed 4568%, Draw 2236%, Safa 3196%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Al Ahed 1Draws 00 Safa
Avg goals: 5.0BTTS in 1/1
24 Jun 2026
Al Ahed
W41
Safa

Recent form

Al Ahed

Al Ahed

L
vs Al Nejmeh
16 Jul 2026
02
W
vs Safa
24 Jun 2026
41
Safa

Safa

L
@ Al Ahed
24 Jun 2026
14
L
@ Al Ansar
15 May 2026
14

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Al Ahed vs Safa?

GoalVio's model predicts Safa to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Al Ahed vs Safa?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Al Ahed vs Safa?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Al Ahed vs Safa?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more