Al Ahedvs
Reyady Abaseya
COMPLETEDLebanon · Premier League · 10/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahed · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ahed 1-0 Reyady Abaseya
Original prediction
Al Ahed
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.7% | 49.8% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 22.8% | 26.4% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.42 | 16.5% | 23.8% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahed
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Al Ahed has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20