Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Adalah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Adalah 1-0 Al Jandal
Original prediction
Al-Adalah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.7% | 42.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.1% | 26.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.2% | 30.4% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al-Adalah
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Al-Adalah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-AdalahDWLDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Al JandalWLDLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al-AdalahAl Jandal
50.0Attack58.3
58.3Defence50.0
58.3Form33.3
58.8Power47.1
1.53xG1.20