Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aktobe W 1-0 Ajax W
Original prediction
Ajax W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 38.83 | 2.4% | 23.4% | 21.0 pts |
| Draw | 14.39 | 6.5% | 22.6% | 16.1 pts |
| Away | 1.02 | 91.1% | 54.0% | -37.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-37.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Ajax W
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Ajax W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aktobe WLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 19 · avg 0.60/3.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Ajax WWWWLW
GF 22 · GA 5 · avg 4.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Aktobe WAjax W
0.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power97.0
1.41xG2.11