Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aktobe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aktobe 1-0 Ulytau, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aktobe 2-2 Ulytau
Original prediction
Aktobe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.4% | 56.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.5% | 26.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 5.28 | 17.1% | 17.5% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Projected Score
Aktobe 1–0 Ulytau
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Aktobe
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Aktobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AktobeWWLWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
UlytauLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AktobeUlytau
48.0Attack29.3
61.3Defence60.0
54.7Form41.3
56.2Power46.0
1.27xG0.60