Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Aktobe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Ordabasy are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and ordabasy hold a 19.5-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 73.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring Ordabasy with 15.3% confidence, a 41% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
15.3%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20