Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aktobe 1-3 Ordabasy
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 29.2% | 21.4% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 24.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.4% | 54.0% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AktobeWDWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OrdabasyWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AktobeOrdabasy
50.6Attack67.9
60.5Defence76.5
55.6Form79.0
57.0Power75.1
0.78xG1.55