Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aktobe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Aktobe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Irtysh are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Aktobe hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.3% in the Premier League, while Aktobe holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aktobe
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Aktobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40