Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Akron 0-0 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Lokomotiv
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.42 | 27.4% | 34.6% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.9% | 27.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 46.7% | 37.5% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AkronDLWDD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivLLLDD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AkronLokomotiv
16.7Attack16.7
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form16.7
37.5Power36.5
1.26xG1.17