Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Akhmat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Akron 2-0 Akhmat
Original prediction
Akhmat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 30.5% | 31.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 28.2% | 27.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 41.3% | 40.4% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Akhmat
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Akhmat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AkronDDDDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AkhmatWDLDW
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AkronAkhmat
11.1Attack33.3
22.2Defence55.6
11.1Form22.2
18.5Power40.2
1.16xG1.40