Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ASIL Lysi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Akritas 1-1 ASIL Lysi
Original prediction
ASIL Lysi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 48.8% | 34.9% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 27.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.3% | 37.8% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
ASIL Lysi
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
ASIL Lysi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AkritasLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ASIL LysiWLWLD
GF 13 · GA 17 · avg 2.60/3.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AkritasASIL Lysi
0.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power88.7
1.18xG1.65