Akhmatvs
FC Orenburg
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 10/23/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Akhmat · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Akhmat 0-1 FC Orenburg
Original prediction
Akhmat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 47.0% | 38.4% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.2% | 28.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 25.9% | 33.3% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Akhmat
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Akhmat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AkhmatLLDLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC OrenburgDWWWL
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AkhmatFC Orenburg
45.5Attack39.4
51.5Defence63.6
33.3Form39.4
45.1Power48.4
1.05xG1.06