Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Akhmat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Akhmat are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Fakel are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Akhmat hold a 21.7-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Cup, while Akhmat holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Akhmat
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
13.7%
Akhmat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20