Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Akhmat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Akhmat 0-0 Baltika
Original prediction
Akhmat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.9% | 37.0% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.8% | 27.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 33.3% | 36.0% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Akhmat
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Akhmat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AkhmatLWDLD
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BaltikaLDLDW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AkhmatBaltika
48.1Attack51.9
51.9Defence55.6
37.0Form40.7
47.1Power50.4
1.37xG1.36