Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajka 1-0 Csakvar
Original prediction
Ajka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.5% | 50.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.6% | 25.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 22.9% | 23.5% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ajka
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Ajka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjkaDLWWD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CsakvarLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AjkaCsakvar
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence16.7
66.7Form0.0
68.0Power21.5
1.93xG0.91