Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax W 8-0 Aktobe W
Original prediction
Ajax W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.03 | 89.2% | 51.5% | -37.7 pts |
| Draw | 11.50 | 8.0% | 23.8% | 15.7 pts |
| Away | 33.17 | 2.8% | 24.7% | 21.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-37.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Ajax W
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Ajax W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ajax WWLWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Aktobe WLDLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.75/2.75
BTTS 2/4O2.5 2/4
Ajax WAktobe W
44.4Attack50.0
61.1Defence50.0
55.6Form50.0
55.3Power50.0
1.65xG1.27