Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 5-1 Willem II
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 84.4% | 74.0% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 9.36 | 10.1% | 14.6% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 17.16 | 5.5% | 11.5% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
74.0%
Model confidence
74.0%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxWLWWW
GF 19 · GA 9 · avg 3.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Willem IIDLDLL
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxWillem II
93.3Attack33.3
60.0Defence6.7
66.7Form13.3
70.3Power22.4
3.50xG0.95