Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Vojvodina are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold a 27.6-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 16.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00