Ajaxvs
PSV Eindhoven
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 36.4% | 40.1% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 24.2% | 24.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 39.4% | 35.0% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxWWWDD
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
PSV EindhovenWWWDW
GF 18 · GA 5 · avg 3.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
88.9Attack100.0
77.8Defence58.3
77.8Form83.3
79.5Power78.8
1.93xG1.63