Ajaxvs
NEC Nijmegen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 71.1% | 67.4% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.81 | 16.2% | 16.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 7.39 | 12.7% | 15.7% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
67.4%
Model confidence
67.4%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxDWWLW
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
NEC NijmegenDLLDL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxNEC Nijmegen
100.0Attack57.1
57.1Defence38.1
66.7Form38.1
71.5Power45.1
3.10xG1.30