Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Marseille are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Marseille hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Marseille holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80