Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Ajax are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lazio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 26.0-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 69.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
63.8%
Model confidence
63.8%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80