Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while FC Sion are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (80.5 v 68.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.5% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
11.5%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00