Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 5-3 FC Sion
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 70.2% | 55.3% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.47 | 17.0% | 21.0% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 7.22 | 12.8% | 23.7% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxWDDWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC SionLWWWD
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AjaxFC Sion
100.0Attack73.3
53.3Defence46.7
86.7Form53.3
80.8Power57.4
2.29xG1.49