Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 2-2 Excelsior
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 77.3% | 56.1% | -21.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.88 | 13.7% | 20.1% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 10.53 | 9.0% | 23.8% | 14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.88 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxWWLWW
GF 20 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ExcelsiorLDWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AjaxExcelsior
100.0Attack72.2
61.1Defence61.1
72.2Form55.6
74.5Power61.7
2.15xG1.51