Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Brighton are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Brighton hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Brighton holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20