Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ajax are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Beşiktaş are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Beşiktaş hold a 40.6-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 84.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Beşiktaş holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20