Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ajax 2-0 Atalanta
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.3% | 44.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.1% | 25.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 29.6% | 30.3% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AjaxWLDDW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AtalantaLWWLL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxAtalanta
100.0Attack44.4
42.9Defence88.9
76.2Form77.8
73.4Power72.8
1.94xG1.43