Airdrie Unitedvs
Montrose
COMPLETEDScotland · League One · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montrose · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Airdrie United 1-0 Montrose
Original prediction
Montrose
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.8% | 32.9% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.0% | 25.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 27.1% | 41.2% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Montrose
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Montrose has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 3 · avg 3.40/0.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80