Airdrie Unitedvs
Alloa Athletic
COMPLETEDScotland · League One · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alloa Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Airdrie United 0-1 Alloa Athletic, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Airdrie United 1-0 Alloa Athletic
Original prediction
Alloa Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.7% | 27.2% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.5% | 27.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.8% | 45.1% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Projected Score
Airdrie United 0–1 Alloa Athletic
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Alloa Athletic
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Alloa Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60