Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Airbus UK · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Airbus UK 3-0 Trefelin
Original prediction
Airbus UK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.6% | 71.5% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.4% | 16.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.0% | 12.3% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Airbus UK
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
Airbus UK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Airbus UKLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TrefelinLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Airbus UKTrefelin
54.5Attack15.2
48.5Defence18.2
45.5Form9.1
49.4Power18.3
3.17xG0.72