Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Airbus UK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Airbus UK 6-2 Holywell
Original prediction
Airbus UK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.0% | 51.9% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.5% | 23.2% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.20 | 21.6% | 24.9% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Airbus UK
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Airbus UK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Airbus UKLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
HolywellLLLLL
GF 7 · GA 20 · avg 1.40/4.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Airbus UKHolywell
33.3Attack46.7
53.3Defence0.0
40.0Form0.0
44.4Power19.3
1.94xG1.19