Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AIK W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AIK W 3-0 Växjö W
Original prediction
AIK W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.4% | 61.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 21.6% | 20.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.02 | 18.0% | 18.1% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
AIK W
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
AIK W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AIK WWWWDL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Växjö WWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AIK WVäxjö W
45.6Attack40.4
52.6Defence35.1
54.4Form31.6
53.2Power37.0
2.02xG1.00