Ahlaforsvs
Stenungsund
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Norra Götaland · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahlafors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ahlafors 1-3 Stenungsund
Original prediction
Ahlafors
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.4% | 56.0% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 20.5% | 22.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 18.1% | 21.8% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Ahlafors
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Ahlafors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40