Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahlafors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ahlafors 6-2 Motala
Original prediction
Ahlafors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.3% | 53.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.1% | 23.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.6% | 22.8% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Ahlafors
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Ahlafors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AhlaforsWLWLW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MotalaWLDDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AhlaforsMotala
71.0Attack47.8
62.3Defence53.6
58.0Form37.7
62.1Power46.9
2.24xG0.95