Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahlafors · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ahlafors 7-1 Kumla
Original prediction
Ahlafors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.9% | 74.4% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 21.5% | 15.5% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 5.46 | 16.6% | 10.1% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Ahlafors
Probability
74.4%
Model confidence
74.4%
Ahlafors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AhlaforsDWWDD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KumlaLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AhlaforsKumla
70.4Attack35.2
59.3Defence44.4
57.4Form37.0
61.3Power41.1
2.69xG0.75